Contingent Liabilities

Analyse and advise on the UK government’s contingent liabilities

The Contingent Liability Central Capability (CLCC) is an analytical and advisory unit within UK Government Investments (UKGI). The CLCC has been established to strengthen contingent liability expertise within government and improve how government manages its portfolio of risk from contingent liabilities.

What is a contingent liability?

A contingent liability represents a government commitment to possible future expenditure if specific conditions are met or unforeseen events occur, such as loans guarantee (where government agrees to pay the debts of a third party if they default, such as the Export Development Guarantee (EDG) schedule run by UK Export Finance) and indemnities (protection similar to insurance where government agrees to cover costs such as clinical negligence claims against NHS GPs).

Contingent liabilities are a significant source of fiscal risk to government. HM Treasury introduced a new approval framework in July 2017 which requires contingent liabilities that are novel, contentious or repercussive and have a maximum exposure of over £3 million to be evaluated according to five criteria: rationale; exposure; risk and return; risk management and mitigation; and affordability. The framework has been featured by both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as an example of international best practice in the management of government guarantees.


Our work

The CLCC assists departments and arms-length bodies with assessing, quantifying and pricing risk from contingent liabilities, allowing departments and government to better understand the scale and distribution of their risk exposure from contingent liabilities. The team comprises actuaries seconded from the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD), credit risk experts, policy professionals and analysts.

Siobhan Duffy


Siobhan Duffy joined UKGI in 2021 to lead the Contingent Liability Central Capability (CLCC), an analytical and advisory unit set up to strengthen contingent liability expertise across government.

Prior to joining UKGI, Siobhan spent over 25 years working in debt capital markets structuring and advising European corporates on debt issuance. During her career, she has held several leadership roles, including global head of private placement at NatWest Markets/ RBS and, prior to that, head of private debt at ABN Amro. Most recently, she established a debt distribution platform for London Bridge Capital, an independent corporate finance firm. 

Outside of UKGI, Siobhan is involved with St Mungo’s supporting a London based Outreach team working with street sleepers.

Owen Dimbylow

Executive Director

Owen joined UKGI in September 2023 to lead the Insurance branch in the Contingent Liabilities Central Capability (CLCC). He is a qualified actuary who is on secondment from the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) where he has worked for the past 11 years. In that time Owen has advised a wide range of public sector clients including various funded pension schemes, regulators and central government departments. Most recently, he led the team advising HM Treasury on public service pension policy. Prior to joining GAD, he worked in the private sector for the insurance software provider, Acturis.

Shehroze Junejo

Executive Director

Shehroze joined UKGI in September 2021 and currently serves as the organisation’s first Chief Data Officer. In this capacity Shehroze is responsible for overseeing the analytical work undertaken by UKGI and identifying opportunities to unlock efficiencies across the organisation by leveraging data and insights. In addition, Shehroze is responsible for leading the Portfolio Analysis & Engagement team within the Contingent Liability Central Capability. As part of this he has led work to aggregate contingent liability data from across government and drive data-driven decision making to improve risk management. Prior to joining UKGI, Shehroze lead an analytical unit within the Infrastructure and Projects Authority to bring together government’s £650bn National Infrastructure and Construction Pipeline, advise on the delivery of major government projects and programmes as well as inform decision making around fiscal events.

Alexander Richarz

Executive Director

Alexander joined UKGI in June 2021 to lead the credit branch in Contingent Liabilities Group. Prior to that, he had an over twenty-five-year international career in commercial and investment banking at Deutsche Bank, CIBC and Credit Suisse. He has significant experience in corporate and leveraged finance gained in front office origination, loan portfolio management, and credit risk management. Prior to joining UKGI he was heading the corporates team in credit risk management at Credit Suisse. He holds a master’s degree in economics.

1. Review and report on existing contingent liabilities

As set out in the 2022 Autumn Statement, the government is committed to taking appropriate measures to manage contingent liabilities as part of a wider approach to sustainable public finances. One of these measures is for the CLCC to publish an annual report to summarise and analyse the stock of contingent liabilities across government.

By setting out the government’s exposure to contingent liabilities, the report will help to provide transparency and allow better understanding of the aggregate exposure to different forms of risk and any interdependencies. Government can then begin actively managing this risk as a portfolio and using the insights when developing new contingent liabilities.

Annual Report on the UK Government’s Contingent Liabilities, 2023

This report from the CLCC brings together, for the first time, a complete view of the UK Government’s exposure to financial guarantees, indemnities, contingent liabilities, and provisions. It aims to identify the scale of contingent liability risk held by government, improve our understanding around the composition of this risk, determine whether government charges adequately for the risk it takes on and consider how to improve value for money across the portfolio.

2. Provide advice and analysis on new contingent liability proposals

Since its inception in April 2021, the team has assisted with over 50 new contingent liability proposals for a range of departments

3. Promote best practice across government

CLCC has established the cross-government Contingent Liability Advisory Network; and continues to share best practice guides – visit the document library for more information

Case Studies